Playoff Seeding Scenarios- Not all Tiebreaker scenarios are included

7A Central Seeding Scenarios-

*Not all Tiebreaker scenarios are included

Remaining games: Week 9 – North Little Rock at Bryant; Cabot at LR Central; Conway at LR Christian; LR Southwest at Pulaski Academy. Week 10 – North Little Rock at Cabot; Bryant at Conway; LR Southwest at LR Central; Pulaski Academy at LR Christian

Current standings: Bryant and Conway are unbeaten in league play (5‑0), LR Christian is one game back at 4‑1, while North LR, Pulaski Academy and Cabot are 2‑3; LR Central and LR Southwest are 0‑5

Bryant

• Remaining: vs North Little Rock (Oct 31) and at Conway (Nov 7

• Best case: Goes 7‑0, locks up the No. 1 seed and a bye.

• Control’s own destiny: Any win over Conway guarantees at least the No. 1 seed (head‑to‑head rules). Even with a split, Bryant holds every tiebreaker over LR Christian and the 2‑3 teams.

• Floor: A sweep of losses drops them to 5‑2 and they’d likely be the No. 2 seed; they can’t fall further than that because of a two‑game cushion in the standings.

Conway

• Remaining: at LR Christian (Oct 31) and vs Bryant (Nov 7)

• Best case: Wins out (7‑0) and takes the No. 1 seed; would also get the top seed if they go 6‑1 and Bryant drops both games.

• In the mix: A split (6‑1) almost assures a No. 2 seed; they’d own the tiebreaker over Bryant if the W comes in Week 10.

• Floor: Dropping both games (finish 5‑2) could slide Conway to the No. 3 seed if LR Christian wins out and claims a 6‑1 record.

LR Christian

• Remaining: hosts Conway (Oct 31) and Pulaski Academy (Nov 7)

• Best case: Finishes 6‑1 and could steal the No. 1 seed if both Bryant and Conway stumble; they must beat Conway and then hope Bryant loses twice.

• Likely: Winning one of the last two should lock up the No. 3 seed; beating Conway virtually ensures at least the No. 2 because of head‑to‑head.

• Floor: Two losses (4‑3) still get them in but could drop them as low as No. 3 if North LR, Cabot or Pulaski Academy finish 4‑3 with favorable points.

North Little Rock

• Remaining: at Bryant (Oct 31), then at Cabot (Nov 7)

• Best case: Two upsets make them 4‑3, which can vault them to No. 2–3 depending on LR Christian’s results.

• Playoff path: A split (3‑4) likely keeps them in the 4‑5 seed range; beating Cabot is crucial because that’s a head‑to‑head tiebreaker.

• Risk: Losing both (2‑5) would tie them with the current winless teams and leave their season in the hands of margin points.

Pulaski Academy

• Remaining: hosts LR Southwest (Oct 31) and visits LR Christian (Nov 7)

• Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could climb them as high as No. 2 with help from upsets elsewhere; beating LR Christian would be huge for seeding.

• Likely: A split (3‑4) puts them around No. 4–5; they’d hold head‑to‑head over Cabot but would need margin points against North LR.

• Floor: If they drop both (2‑5), they’ll be fighting for the final berth with LR Central and LR Southwest.

Cabot

• Remaining: at LR Central (Oct 31) and home vs North LR (Nov 7)

• Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could propel Cabot as high as No. 2; beating North LR is vital because it doubles as a tiebreaker.

• Middle ground: Splitting the last two (3‑4) puts them in the 3‑5 seed range.

• Floor: Losing both (2‑5) leaves them in the mix for the final spot; they’d need LR Central/LR Southwest to stay winless and then win on points.

LR Central

• Remaining: hosts Cabot (Oct 31) and LR Southwest (Nov 7)

• Best case: Winning both (2‑5) keeps them alive for the No. 5–6 seeds; they must also get help (North LR, Cabot and PA losses) and win the point‑system tiebreaker.

• Survival: A 1‑1 finish (1‑6) requires heavy chaos to reach No. 6; losing both (0‑7) eliminates them.

LR Southwest

• Remaining: at Pulaski Academy (Oct 31) and at LR Central (Nov 7)

• Best case: Two wins (2‑5) give Southwest a puncher’s chance at the No. 5–6 seeds; they’d need to beat LR Central head‑to‑head and hope Cabot/Pulaski Academy stumble.

• Split: A 1‑6 finish leaves them praying for multiple upsets; 0‑7 ends their season.

*Not all Tiebreaker scenarios are included

7A West Seeding Scenarios 

Remaining games: Week 9 – Springdale at Bentonville; Bentonville West at FS Northside; Fayetteville at Heritage; Rogers at Har‑Ber. Week 10 – Bentonville at Bentonville West; Har‑Ber at Fayetteville; Heritage at Rogers; FS Northside at Springdale

Current standings: Bentonville sits 5‑0, Bentonville West and Rogers are 4‑1; Fayetteville, Har‑Ber and Springdale are 2‑3; Heritage is 1‑4; FS Northside is 0‑5

Bentonville

• Remaining: home vs Springdale (Oct 31), then at Bentonville West (Nov 7).

• Best case: Wins out to finish 7‑0 and secure the No. 1 seed plus a bye.

• Control: Even with a split (6‑1) Bentonville will be the top seed if the loss is to Springdale and they beat West on Nov 7.

• Floor: A two‑game skid drops them to 5‑2; they’d still be no lower than No. 2 because of their head‑to‑head over Rogers and significant point margin.

Bentonville West

• Remaining: at FS Northside (Oct 31) and hosts Bentonville (Nov 7).

• Best case: Wins both (6‑1) and claims the No. 1 seed; they’d own the head‑to‑head over Bentonville.

• Likely: A split (5‑2) keeps them in the No. 2–3 range; they need to beat Rogers on points if all finish 5‑2.

• Floor: Losing both (4‑3) could drop them to No. 3.

Rogers

• Remaining: at Har‑Ber (Oct 31) and hosts Heritage (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (6‑1) with a Bentonville loss gives Rogers a shot at the No. 1 seed; they’d need Bentonville West to lose twice.

• Likely: A 5‑2 finish (split) leaves them battling West for the No. 2 seed; the head‑to‑head margin points vs West will matter if they both end up 5‑2.

• Floor: Dropping both (4‑3) would push them down to No. 3.

Fayetteville

• Remaining: at Heritage (Oct 31) and home vs Har‑Ber (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could leap them to No. 2 if Bentonville West or Rogers falter; they need to beat Har‑Ber for head‑to‑head.

• Middle: A split (3‑4) leaves them between No. 3–5; they’d be safe for the playoffs.

• Floor: Two losses (2‑5) would put them on the bubble; they’d need help from Heritage and FS Northside to climb to No. 6.

Har‑Ber (Springdale Har‑Ber)

• Remaining: home vs Rogers (Oct 31) and at Fayetteville (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could take them as high as No. 2; wins over both rivals give them strong head‑to‑head.

• Likely: A split (3‑4) slots them around No. 4.

• Floor: Losing both (2‑5) risks falling to No. 6 if Heritage or FS Northside pull upsets.

Springdale

• Remaining: at Bentonville (Oct 31) and hosts FS Northside (Nov 7).

• Best case: Upset Bentonville and beat Northside (4‑3) to reach No. 2–3.

• Mid: Splitting (3‑4) likely lands them No. 4 or 5.

• Floor: Two losses (2‑5) leave them fighting for No. 6; they need Heritage or Northside to stay below them.

Heritage

• Remaining: hosts Fayetteville (Oct 31) and visits Rogers (Nov 7).

• Best case: Wins out (3‑4), which could push them into the No. 3‑4 range depending on tiebreakers.

• Survival: A single win (2‑5) might be enough for No. 6 if FS Northside stays winless.

• Floor: Losing both (1‑6) likely ends their season.

FS Northside

• Remaining: hosts Bentonville West (Oct 31) and visits Springdale (Nov 7).

• Best case: Winning both (2‑5) gives them a chance at No. 6; they must have Heritage and one of the 2‑3 teams lose out.

• Slim: A single win (1‑6) leaves them needing multiple upsets; 0‑7 eliminates them.

*Not all Tiebreaker scenarios are included

6A East Seeding Scenarios

Remaining games: Week 9 – Jonesboro at El Dorado; LR Catholic at Marion; Sheridan at Sylvan Hills; Benton at West Memphis. Week 10 – Marion at Benton; West Memphis at Jonesboro; Sylvan Hills at LR Catholic; El Dorado at Sheridan

Current standings: Benton and Sylvan Hills lead at 4‑1; El Dorado, Jonesboro and Marion are tied at 3‑2; Sheridan is 2‑3; LR Catholic 1‑4; West Memphis 0‑5

Benton

• Remaining: at West Memphis (Oct 31) and home vs Marion (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and some help from Sylvan Hills to secure the No. 1 seed.

• Control: Beating Marion once gives them head‑to‑head over every contender; a 5‑2 finish likely keeps them in the top two.

• Floor: Losing both (4‑3) could drop them as low as No. 3 if Sylvan Hills or El Dorado finish 5‑2.

Sylvan Hills

• Remaining: hosts Sheridan (Oct 31) and travels to LR Catholic (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (6‑1)  they get the top seed.

• Likely: A split (5‑2) keeps them in the top three.

• Floor: Losing both (4‑3) could drop them to No. 3 or even No. 4 if El Dorado/Jonesboro win out.

El Dorado

• Remaining: hosts Jonesboro (Oct 31) and travels to Sheridan (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (5‑2) plus a Benton or Sylvan Hills stumble could elevate them to No. 1–2.

• Middle: A split (4‑3) probably leaves them No. 3–4.

• Floor: Two losses (3‑4) leave them fighting for No. 5–6; they’d need at least one win to secure a berth.

Jonesboro

• Remaining: at El Dorado (Oct 31) and home vs West Memphis (Nov 7).

• Best case: Win both (5‑2) and hope Sylvan Hills or Benton slip to claim a top‑two seed.

• Likely: Split (4‑3) leaves them around No. 3–4.

• Floor: Two losses (3‑4) put them at risk of falling behind Sheridan or LR Catholic for No. 6.

Marion

• Remaining: hosts LR Catholic (Oct 31) and visits Benton (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (5‑2) and some help could give them a No. 2 seed; beating Benton in Week 10 is critical.

• Likely: A split (4‑3) sees them in the 3‑4 range.

• Floor: Two losses (3‑4) might send them to No. 5–6.

Sheridan

• Remaining: at Sylvan Hills (Oct 31) and home vs El Dorado (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could vault them into the top three; they’d own head‑to‑head over the Wildcats.

• Middle: A split (3‑4) is usually good for No. 4–5.

• Floor: Losing both (2‑5) could push them out of the top six if LR Catholic and West Memphis surge.

LR Catholic

• Remaining: at Marion (Oct 31) and home vs Sylvan Hills (Nov 7).

• Best case: Win both (3‑4) and they might sneak into the 4‑5 seed range depending on tiebreakers.

• Survival: A split (2‑5) still keeps them alive for the No. 6 seed.

• Floor: Two losses (1‑6) eliminate them.

West Memphis

• Remaining: home vs Benton (Oct 31) and at Jonesboro (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (2‑5) give them a chance at No. 5–6 if Sheridan and LR Catholic lose out.

• Split: 1‑6 means they’ll need major chaos to reach No. 6.

• Floor: 0‑7 ends the season.

6A West Seeding Scenarios

*Not all Tiebreaker scenarios are included

Remaining games: Week 9 – FS Southside at Greenwood; Shiloh Christian at Lake Hamilton; Russellville at Siloam Springs; Mountain Home at Van Buren. Week 10 – Siloam Springs at FS Southside; Greenwood at Mountain Home; Lake Hamilton at Russellville; Van Buren at Shiloh Christian

Current standings: Greenwood is 5‑0; Mountain Home, Shiloh Christian and Van Buren are 4‑1; Fort Smith Southside 2‑3; Lake Hamilton 1‑4; Russellville and Siloam Springs are winless

Greenwood

• Remaining: hosts FS Southside (Oct 31) and travels to Mountain Home (Nov 7).

• Best case: Goes 7‑0 and clinches the No. 1 seed.

• Control: Splitting (6‑1) still guarantees no worse than the No. 2 seed; beating Mountain Home would secure head‑to‑head over every contender.

• Floor: Even with two losses (5‑2) they should be no lower than No. 2.

Mountain Home

• Remaining: hosts Van Buren (Oct 31) and welcomes Greenwood (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (6‑1) could steal the No. 1 seed; beating Greenwood in Week 10 is mandatory.

• Likely: A split (5‑2) keeps them in the top three; they’d need to watch margin points against Shiloh Christian.

• Floor: Two losses (4‑3) could drop them to No. 4.

Shiloh Christian

• Remaining: at Lake Hamilton (Oct 31) and home vs Van Buren (Nov 7).

• Best case: Wins out (6‑1) and has Greenwood lose twice to take No. 1; more realistically 6‑1 earns a top‑two seed.

• Middle: A split (5‑2) positions them around No. 2–3; they hold head‑to‑head over Mountain Home if they beat Van Buren but need Greenwood to slip.

• Floor: Two losses (4‑3) drop them to about No. 4.

Van Buren

• Remaining: at Mountain Home (Oct 31) and at Shiloh Christian (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (6‑1) could catapult them to No. 1 or No. 2; they’d own head‑to‑head over both Mountain Home and Shiloh.

• Likely: A split (5‑2) leaves them in the 2‑3 range.

• Floor: Two losses (4‑3) sends them to No. 3–4.

Fort Smith Southside

• Remaining: at Greenwood (Oct 31) and home vs Siloam Springs (Nov 7).

• Best case: Winning both (4‑3) could vault them to No. 2–3 with help from upsets; beating Greenwood would be massive.

• Middle: A split (3‑4) likely lands them at No. 4–5.

• Floor: Two losses (2‑5) force them to hope Lake Hamilton, Russellville and Siloam Springs stay behind them.

Lake Hamilton

• Remaining: hosts Shiloh Christian (Oct 31) and travels to Russellville (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (3‑4) could jump them into the No. 3–4 range; they must beat Shiloh and rely on Southside and Van Buren to drop games.

• Survival: A split (2‑5) leaves them fighting for the No. 5–6 seeds; losing both (1‑6) makes them vulnerable to Russellville or Siloam.

Russellville

• Remaining: at Siloam Springs (Oct 31) and home vs Lake Hamilton (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (2‑5) give them a shot at No. 5–6, especially if Southside loses twice.

• Split: A 1‑6 finish leaves them needing a tiebreaker; 0‑7 ends the year.

Siloam Springs

• Remaining: hosts Russellville (Oct 31) and travels to FS Southside (Nov 7).

• Best case: Two wins (2‑5) could lift them into the final playoff spot with help.

• Split: 1‑6 keeps hope alive but requires Southside and Lake Hamilton to fall.

• Floor: 0‑7 eliminates them.

5A Central

• Maumelle

  • Remaining: Searcy at Maumelle (Oct 31) and Maumelle at Joe T. Robinson (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Finish unbeaten at 7‑0 and lock up the top seed.

  • Likely: Even a split (6‑1) keeps them in the top two thanks to big point margins.

  • Floor: Two losses (5‑2) still see them no worse than fourth

• Joe T. Robinson

  • Remaining: hosts Pine Bluff (Oct 31) and welcomes Maumelle (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (7‑0) give them the No. 1 seed.

  • Likely: A split (6‑1) keeps them in the 2‑3 range.

  • Floor: Even at 5‑2 they stay inside the bracket.

• Searcy

  • Remaining: at Maumelle (Oct 31) and home vs Beebe (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and hope one of the unbeaten leaders stumbles to snatch the top seed.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 finish locks them into the top three.

  • Floor: Two losses (4‑3) could drop them to fourth.

• Beebe

  • Remaining: hosts Watson Chapel (Oct 31) and travels to Searcy (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (5‑2) and with some help climb into the top‑seed conversation.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record likely keeps them in the top four.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) risk missing the postseason if Pine Bluff surges.

• Pine Bluff

  • Remaining: at Joe T. Robinson (Oct 31) and at White Hall (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (4‑3) could catapult them to third if Beebe slips.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 mark might grab the final spot.

  • Floor: Losing both (2‑5) eliminates them.

• White Hall

  • Remaining: vs Jacksonville (Oct 31) and vs Pine Bluff (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope Beebe and Pine Bluff lose; that’s their only path.

  • Likely: Any loss probably ends their hopes.

  • Floor: Two more defeats end their season.

• Jacksonville

  • Remaining: at White Hall (Oct 31) and home vs Watson Chapel (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Even two wins only get them to 2‑5, outside the top‑four cut.

  • Likely: Eliminated regardless.

  • Floor: Winless season.

• Watson Chapel

  • Remaining: at Beebe (Oct 31) and at Jacksonville (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (2‑5) still leave them short of the top four.

  • Likely: Out of contention.

  • Floor: 0‑7 finish.

5A East

• Valley View

  • Remaining: at Nettleton (Oct 31) and home vs Batesville (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (7‑0) and capture the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 mark keeps them first or second thanks to strong margins.

  • Floor: Even at 5‑2 they remain comfortably in the top three.

• Nettleton

  • Remaining: home vs Valley View (Oct 31) and at Wynne (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (7‑0) set up a chance to be the No. 1 seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 finish keeps them in the top two.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 mark still qualifies but could drop them to third.

• Harding Academy

  • Remaining: hosts Wynne (Oct 31) and travels to Brookland (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Finish 5‑2, upsetting one of the unbeatens, and challenge for a top seed.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record keeps them inside the top four.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) risk falling behind Wynne on tiebreakers.

• Batesville

  • Remaining: at Greene County Tech (Oct 31) and at Valley View (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) and some chaos ahead could move them up.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 mark likely secures the fourth seed.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) could drop them out if Wynne wins out.

• Wynne

  • Remaining: at Harding Academy (Oct 31) and home vs Nettleton (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) to give themselves a shot at third or fourth.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 record leaves them hoping margin points break their way.

  • Floor: Two defeats (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Brookland

  • Remaining: at Paragould (Oct 31) and home vs Harding Academy (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope Batesville or Wynne collapse.

  • Likely: Any loss ends their bid.

  • Floor: Eliminated.

• Greene County Tech

  • Remaining: vs Batesville (Oct 31) and home vs Paragould (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as Brookland—win both and pray for help.

  • Likely: A single loss ends the dream.

  • Floor: Out.

• Paragould

  • Remaining: vs Brookland (Oct 31) and at Greene County Tech (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Even at 2‑5 they can’t reach the top four.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless conference.

5A South

• Hot Springs Lakeside

  • Remaining: home vs Parkview (Oct 31) and at Hot Springs (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (7‑0) secure the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 finish still keeps them in the top two.

  • Floor: Even at 5‑2 they remain comfortably in the playoff field.

• Hot Springs

  • Remaining: at Camden Fairview (Oct 31) and home vs Lakeside (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out and challenge for the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 mark keeps them in the top two.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 finish still secures a berth.

• Little Rock Parkview

  • Remaining: at Lakeside (Oct 31) and home vs Camden Fairview (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (6‑1) and hope the leaders stumble to claim first.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 record positions them comfortably in the top three.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they still get in but could drop in seeding.

• Camden Fairview

  • Remaining: home vs Hot Springs (Oct 31) and at Parkview (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as Parkview—finish 6‑1 and possibly steal the top seed.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 mark likely keeps them in the top three.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record probably holds the last playoff spot; two losses (3‑4) risk letting De Queen or Magnolia sneak in.

• De Queen

  • Remaining: at Magnolia (Oct 31) and home vs Arkansas (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope Camden Fairview or Parkview lose out to slip into fourth.

  • Likely: Any loss eliminates them.

  • Floor: Out.

• Magnolia

  • Remaining: vs De Queen (Oct 31) and at Hope (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as De Queen—win both and root for chaos.

  • Likely: One loss ends the season.

  • Floor: Out.

• Arkansas High

  • Remaining: vs Hope (Oct 31) and at De Queen (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Even at 2‑5 they fall short of the top four.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

• Hope

  • Remaining: at Arkansas (Oct 31) and home vs Magnolia (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as Arkansas—two wins still leave them short.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: 0‑7.

5A West

• Greenbrier

  • Remaining: at Harrison (Oct 31) and home vs Vilonia (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Finish 7‑0 and guarantee the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 record still keeps them first thanks to point margins.

  • Floor: Even at 5‑2 they should be no worse than second.

• Farmington

  • Remaining: at Clarksville (Oct 31) and home vs Alma (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and a Greenbrier stumble could steal the top seed.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 finish keeps them in the top three.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they’ll fight for the last two spots.

• Harrison

  • Remaining: vs Greenbrier (Oct 31) and at Pea Ridge (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win out (5‑2) and challenge for second.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record secures a berth.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) leave them at the mercy of tiebreakers.

• Morrilton

  • Remaining: vs Vilonia (Oct 31) and vs Clarksville (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as Harrison—finish 5‑2 and stay in the top‑two conversation.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 mark keeps them in the top four.

  • Floor: At 3‑4 they risk missing out.

• Alma

  • Remaining: at Pea Ridge (Oct 31) and at Farmington (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) to lock up a berth; beating Harrison or Morrilton helps.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 finish requires help from Vilonia.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Vilonia

  • Remaining: at Morrilton (Oct 31) and at Greenbrier (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Same as Alma—win both to reach 4‑3 and claim a spot.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 record leaves them needing tiebreakers.

  • Floor: Two defeats (2‑5) knock them out.

• Pea Ridge

  • Remaining: vs Alma (Oct 31) and vs Harrison (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and hope Alma and Vilonia stumble.

  • Likely: One loss eliminates them.

  • Floor: Out.

• Clarksville

  • Remaining: vs Farmington (Oct 31) and at Morrilton (Nov 7).

  • Best case: Even two wins (2‑5) can’t climb into the top four.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: 0‑7.

4A‑1

• Elkins

  • Remaining: two conference games left.

  • Best case: Win both (7‑0) and secure the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 finish keeps them first or second.

  • Floor: Even at 5‑2 they’re comfortably in

• Gravette

  • Remaining: two games versus league foes.

  • Best case: Same as Elkins—win out to stay atop the league.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 mark secures a high seed.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they could drop to second or third but still qualify easily.

• Gentry

  • Remaining: two more league games.

  • Best case: Win both (6‑1) and hope one of the unbeatens falters to take the crown.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 record locks them into the top three.

  • Floor: Dropping to 4‑3 still places them around fourth or fifth.

• Prairie Grove

  • Remaining: two league matchups.

  • Best case: Win out (5‑2) and push into the top three.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record leaves them in the 4‑5 range.

  • Floor: At 3‑4 they risk missing the cut if Huntsville surges.

• Huntsville

  • Remaining: two games against conference rivals.

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 to grab a playoff berth; beating Prairie Grove is key.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 mark leaves them tied for fifth and reliant on points.

  • Floor: Two losses eliminate them.

• Green Forest

  • Remaining: two contests remain.

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope Huntsville or Prairie Grove collapse.

  • Likely: Any loss knocks them out.

  • Floor: Out.

• Berryville

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Even winning out can’t reach the top five.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: 0‑7.

• Lincoln

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Same as Berryville—out of the running.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

4A‑2

• Lonoke

  • Remaining: two conference games.

  • Best case: Win out (7‑0) for the top seed.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 mark still secures a high seed.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they remain top three.

• Mills University Studies

  • Remaining: two league matchups.

  • Best case: Finish 6‑1 and, with a Lonoke slip, claim the title.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 record keeps them top two or three.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they’re still inside the top five.

• Heber Springs

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Same as Mills—win out and challenge for first.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 finish keeps them in the top three.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 mark likely leaves them fourth or fifth.

• Central Arkansas Christian

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Finish 5‑2 to push for a top‑three seed.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record keeps them in the fifth spot.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) risk being overtaken by Forrest City.

• Forrest City

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (5‑2) and slide into third if CAC or Heber slip.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record likely claims the fifth seed.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) may drop them out if Riverview wins out.

• Riverview

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope for multiple upsets to climb to fifth.

  • Likely: A single loss eliminates them.

  • Floor: Out.

• Bald Knob

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Cannot reach the top five.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

• Little Rock Hall

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Same as Bald Knob—out of the running.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: 0‑7.

4A‑3

• Gosnell

  • Remaining: two league games.

  • Best case: Win out (7‑0) and lock down the top seed.

  • Likely: Even with one loss they’ll be first or second due to a big lead.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they remain comfortably in.

• Blytheville

  • Remaining: two conference contests.

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑1) and a Gosnell slip could give them the crown.

  • Likely: A 4‑2 finish likely lands them second or third.

  • Floor: At 3‑3 they’re still within the top five.

• Southside

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Same as Blytheville—win out and push for first.

  • Likely: A 4‑2 mark keeps them in the top three.

  • Floor: At 3‑3 they’re still safe but could drop to fourth or fifth.

• Pocahontas

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Win both (4‑2) to elevate into the top three.

  • Likely: A 3‑3 record likely secures a playoff berth.

  • Floor: At 2‑4 they’ll need help to avoid being overtaken by Highland or Trumann.

• Highland

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win out (3‑3) to make the top five; big margins help with points.

  • Likely: Any loss likely drops them out.

  • Floor: Eliminated.

• Trumann

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Finish 3‑4 and hope for help to reach fifth.

  • Likely: One more loss ends their chances.

  • Floor: Out.

• Jonesboro Westside

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Cannot reach the top five.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

4A‑4

• Dardanelle

  • Remaining: two conference games.

  • Best case: Stay unbeaten (7‑0) and claim the top seed.

  • Likely: Even with one loss, margin points keep them first or second.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they still finish high.

• Clinton

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (6‑1) and hope Dardanelle slips to take first.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 mark locks them into second or third.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they remain inside the top five but drop to fourth or fifth.

• Ozark

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Same as Clinton—win out and challenge for first.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 finish keeps them near the top.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 mark likely leaves them third or fourth.

• Mena

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (5‑2) to push into the top three.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record should still qualify.

  • Floor: At 3‑4 they risk being overtaken by Pottsville.

• Pottsville

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Finish strong (5‑2) to stay in the top five.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 mark still works, though they’ll be on the bubble.

  • Floor: Two losses could drop them out if Lamar wins out.

• Lamar

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and hope Pottsville or Mena falter to sneak into fifth.

  • Likely: Any loss ends their hopes.

  • Floor: Eliminated.

• Dover

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Cannot reach the top five.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: 0‑7.

• Waldron

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Same as Dover—out of the running.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

4A‑7

• Nashville

  • Remaining: two conference games.

  • Best case: Win out (7‑0) and stay atop the league.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 record may still hold first depending on points.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they remain in the top two.

• Arkadelphia

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Finish 6‑1 and, with a Nashville loss, seize the top seed.

  • Likely: A 5‑2 finish keeps them second or third.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they still qualify but may drop to fourth or fifth.

• Malvern

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (5‑2) to contend for second.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record likely leaves them in the middle of the bracket.

  • Floor: At 3‑4 they need tiebreakers to stay in.

• Bauxite

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Same as Malvern—finishing 5‑2 keeps them in the top three.

  • Likely: Splitting (4‑3) leaves them around fourth.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) risk a drop to sixth.

• Haskell Harmony Grove

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 to stay above the cutoff; beating Fountain Lake is key.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 mark leaves them on the bubble.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) likely eliminate them.

• Fountain Lake

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Same as Harmony Grove—win both to guarantee a berth.

  • Likely: Splitting leaves them in a tiebreak for fifth.

  • Floor: At 2‑5 they’re out.

• Ashdown

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and hope Harmony Grove and Fountain Lake lose to sneak into fifth.

  • Likely: One more loss eliminates them.

  • Floor: Out.

• Genoa Central

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Cannot climb high enough.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

4A‑8

• Hamburg

  • Remaining: two league games.

  • Best case: Two wins (7‑0) or even one win (6‑1) secure the top seed.

  • Likely: At 5‑2 they still finish in the top two.

  • Floor: Safely in the bracket.

• Stuttgart

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Win out to secure the top seed or share it based on points.

  • Likely: A 6‑1 finish keeps them in the top two.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they remain a high seed.

• Warren

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Win both (5‑2) and hope Hamburg or Stuttgart stumble to move up.

  • Likely: A 4‑3 record likely leaves them third or fourth.

  • Floor: At 3‑4 they could be squeezed by the teams below.

• Helena‑West Helena

  • Remaining: two contests.

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) to stay ahead of Monticello or DeWitt for the fifth seed.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 mark puts them in a points battle.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) may drop them out.

• Monticello

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Same as Helena—finish 4‑3 to be safe.

  • Likely: A 3‑4 record leaves them tied for the last spot.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• DeWitt

  • Remaining: two matchups.

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 and hope to edge Monticello/Helena on points.

  • Likely: At 3‑4 they’ll be in a tiebreak.

  • Floor: A 2‑5 record ends their season.

• Crossett

  • Remaining: two league contests.

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and have two of the 2‑3 teams lose; a difficult path.

  • Likely: Any loss eliminates them.

  • Floor: Out.

• Star City

  • Remaining: two games.

  • Best case: Cannot qualify.

  • Likely: Eliminated.

  • Floor: Winless.

3A Conferences (top 5 qualify)

3A‑1 (Mansfield/Booneville/Charleston/Greenland/Hackett/Lavaca/West Fork/Cedarville)

• Mansfield (5‑0 conference, 46 points)

  • Best case: Win both remaining league games (7‑0) to lock up the No. 1 seed and home‑field advantage.

  • Control: A split (6‑1) and they are the No 1 seed.

  • Floor: Dropping both (5‑2) would probably still leave Mansfield top‑three; it’s very hard for them to fall out of a playoff spot.

• Booneville (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Sweep the last two to finish 6‑1 and steal the top seed if Mansfield stumbles. Their high point total gives them tiebreak leverage.

  • In the mix: A 5‑2 record should be enough for the No. 2–3 seed; they need to beat Charleston to secure head‑to‑head.

  • Floor: Two losses (4‑3) could slide Booneville into the 4‑5 range but still inside the bracket.

• Charleston (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and hope Booneville or Mansfield drop another game to grab the top seed.

  • Control: Splitting (5‑2) keeps the Tigers in the top‑three, especially if they beat Booneville.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish still gives Charleston a playoff berth but could push them as low as the fifth seed.

• Greenland (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Win both games (4‑3) and climb into the top four. They would need losses by Lavaca and Hackett.

  • In the mix: A split (3‑4) keeps them on the bubble; tiebreaker points could decide No. 5.

  • Floor: Losing out (2‑5) risks falling behind West Fork and missing the playoffs.

• Hackett (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 and slide into the fourth seed if Greenland or Lavaca stumble.

  • Control: A 3‑4 mark leaves them in a points battle with Greenland and Lavaca for the fifth spot.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) could eliminate them if West Fork passes them on points.

• Lavaca (2‑3, 21 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (4‑3) and favorable head‑to‑head results could push the Golden Arrows up to No. 4.

  • In the mix: A 3‑4 finish leaves them scrapping for fifth with Hackett and Greenland.

  • Floor: Losing out (2‑5) would likely drop them outside the top five.

• West Fork (1‑4, 4 pts)

  • Best case: Winning both (3‑4) plus help from Lavaca and Hackett gives them a shot at the final berth.

  • Control: Splitting (2‑5) keeps faint hopes alive but they must max out the 13‑point margin to win any points tiebreaker.

  • Floor: A 1‑6 finish eliminates them.

• Cedarville (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (2‑5) and multiple upsets above them could create a points scramble for the last spot.

  • Floor: Any loss eliminates them; they need to win out to have a chance.

3A‑2 (Mayflower/Salem/Atkins/Quitman/Mountain View/Melbourne/Episcopal Collegiate/Yellville‑Summit)

• Mayflower (5‑0, 65 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 7‑0 to clinch the No. 1 seed.

  • Control: Even with one loss, Mayflower’s huge point margin puts them in good shape for the top seed; beating Salem head‑to‑head would be decisive.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 finish still likely keeps them top‑three.

• Salem (5‑0, 58 pts

  • Best case: Win out to grab the top seed; a tie with Mayflower goes to points.

  • Control: A single loss (6‑1) and a split by Mayflower could still deliver the top spot; otherwise they’ll be the No. 2 seed.

  • Floor: Two losses (5‑2) drop them to third or fourth depending on Atkins.

• Atkins (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Sweep (6‑1) and hope Mayflower/Salem falter to steal the crown.

  • In the mix: A 5‑2 finish should secure a top‑three seed; beating Salem or Mayflower would carry head‑to‑head weight.

  • Floor: Ending 4‑3 would put them around the fourth or fifth seed but still alive.

• Quitman (3‑2, 27 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) could push them into the top two if both unbeaten teams stumble.

  • Control: A split (4‑3) likely claims the fourth or fifth berth.

  • Floor: Losing out (3‑4) risks a points fight with Mountain View and Melbourne for the final spot.

• Mountain View (2‑3, 24 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (4‑3) and get into the top five; they need to leapfrog Quitman.

  • Control: A 3‑4 mark keeps them in contention but may require help from Melbourne losing.

  • Floor: A 2‑5 finish ends their season.

• Melbourne (1‑4, 13 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and catch Mountain View or Quitman for the fifth spot on points.

  • Control: A split leaves them 2‑5 and likely out.

  • Floor: Any loss eliminates them.

• Episcopal Collegiate (0‑5, 0 pts

  • Best case: Two wins (2‑5) and a lot of chaos above them; they would need to upset Mayflower or Salem and then rely on points.

  • Floor: One more loss ends their season.

• Yellville‑Summit (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Like Episcopal, they must win out and hope for an unlikely points tie for fifth.

  • Floor: A single defeat eliminates them.

3A‑3 (Rivercrest/Newport/Walnut Ridge/Harrisburg/Osceola/Hoxie/Manila/Piggott)

• Rivercrest (5‑0, 56 pts)

  • Best case: Win out for a perfect 7‑0 and the No. 1 seed.

  • Control: Even with one slip, Rivercrest should stay first or second thanks to a two‑game cushion over Newport and big points.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 mark still leaves them comfortably in the top three.

• Newport (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and a Rivercrest loss could give them the title; they need a head‑to‑head win to force a points decision.

  • Control: At 5‑2, they’re likely the No. 2–3 seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish would still make the playoffs but might drop them into a points battle with Walnut Ridge.

• Walnut Ridge (3‑2, 39 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (5‑2) and climb to the No. 2 seed if Newport falls twice.

  • Control: A 4‑3 finish should lock up the No. 3–4 seed.

  • Floor: Losing both (3‑4) risks dropping to fifth if Harrisburg or Osceola surge.

• Harrisburg (3‑2, 28 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) could jump them into the top two with help; they need big margins to improve their points.

  • Control: Splitting (4‑3) likely leaves them fourth or fifth.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 record means a tiebreaker fight with Osceola and Hoxie.

• Osceola (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Winning both (4‑3) puts them squarely in the 3‑5 range, depending on Harrisburg’s results.

  • Control: A split (3‑4) leaves them hoping to edge Hoxie on head‑to‑head or points.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) would end their postseason hopes.

• Hoxie (2‑3, 20 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Osceola—finish 4‑3 and sneak into the fifth seed.

  • Control: At 3‑4 they would need points tiebreakers to surpass Osceola or Harrisburg.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Manila (1‑4, 13 pts)

  • Best case: Winning out (3‑4) and having multiple teams above them lose could get them a No. 5 seed, but they need big margins.

  • Floor: Any loss knocks them out.

• Piggott (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (2‑5) and complete chaos; realistically, they’re eliminated with one more loss.

  • Floor: Another defeat seals their season.

3A‑4 (Glen Rose/Magnet Cove/Paris/Cutter Morning Star/Jessieville/Perryville/Danville/Two Rivers)

• Glen Rose (5‑0, 65 pts)

  • Best case: Win the last two (7‑0) and claim the top seed.

  • Control: Even with one loss, Glen Rose’s strong point total should secure the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 finish keeps them in the top three.

• Magnet Cove (4‑1, 45 pts)

  • Best case: Sweep (6‑1) and hope Glen Rose drops a game; head‑to‑head would decide the top seed.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they likely land the No. 2–3 seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record leaves them battling Paris for third; they won’t fall out of the top five.

• Paris (4‑1, 44 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and steal the title if Glen Rose and Magnet Cove stumble.

  • Control: Finish 5‑2 to stay in the top three.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record still gets them to the postseason but might drop them behind Cutter Morning Star on points.

• Cutter Morning Star (3‑2, 34 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) could vault them into the No. 2 seed if Paris or Magnet Cove falter.

  • Control: A 4‑3 finish probably keeps them fourth.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) would put them in a points battle for the last spot.

• Jessieville (2‑3, 20 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 and slide into the fourth or fifth seed.

  • Control: A 3‑4 record could leave them tied with Perryville; points will matter.

  • Floor: Losing both (2‑5) likely ends their season.

• Perryville (1‑4, 13 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope Jessieville or Cutter Morning Star slip to grab the final berth.

  • Control: A split (2‑5) probably isn’t enough.

  • Floor: Two more losses knock them out.

• Danville (1‑4, 1 pt)

  • Best case: Two wins (3‑4) but they’d need major help and big margins to overcome their low point total.

  • Floor: Any loss ends their hopes.

• Two Rivers (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (2‑5) and pray for a five‑way tie at the bottom; realistically elimination looms with the next defeat.

  • Floor: One more loss eliminates them.

3A‑7 (Bismarck/Prescott/Smackover/Centerpoint/Fouke/Harmony Grove/Horatio/Parkers Chapel)

• Bismarck (5‑0, 65 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (7‑0) secure the top seed.

  • Control: Even a split likely keeps them No. 1 thanks to head‑to‑head over Prescott and Smackover.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 finish would still place them no lower than second.

• Prescott (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and have Bismarck drop two; beating Bismarck head‑to‑head is essential for the crown.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they should settle in as the No. 2–3 seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record could slide them behind Centerpoint on points.

• Smackover (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Prescott—win both and hope Bismarck slips; they need to outscore Prescott on the point system for a higher seed.

  • Control: A 5‑2 mark secures the No. 2–3 seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish still makes the postseason but might fall behind Centerpoint.

• Centerpoint (3‑2, 32 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 5‑2 and jump into the No. 2 seed if Prescott or Smackover falter.

  • Control: A 4‑3 record likely keeps them fourth.

  • Floor: Two losses (3‑4) would leave them battling Fouke for the fifth spot.

• Fouke (2‑3, 19 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) and steal the last playoff berth; they need either Centerpoint or one of the 4‑1 teams to slide.

  • Control: A 3‑4 finish may require a points tiebreak with Harmony Grove or Horatio.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Harmony Grove (1‑4, 6 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (3‑4) plus help could sneak them into the fifth seed.

  • Control: Splitting (2‑5) makes the path extremely narrow.

  • Floor: Losing either game ends their hopes.

• Horatio (1‑4, 6 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Harmony Grove—finish 3‑4 and hope for a points miracle.

  • Floor: Another loss will knock them out.

• Parkers Chapel (0‑5, 0 pts

  • Best case: Win out (2‑5) and hope for a five‑way tie at the bottom.

  • Floor: Any loss eliminates them.

3A‑8 (Fordyce/Dumas/McGehee/Drew Central/Lake Village/Palestine‑Wheatley/Rison/Barton)

• Fordyce (4‑1, 52 pts)

  • Best case: Win the last two (6‑1) and capture the No. 1 seed; a head‑to‑head victory over Dumas would seal it.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they likely secure a top‑two seed due to their point total.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish still keeps them in the top five.

• Dumas (4‑1, 36 pts)

  • Best case: Win out to finish 6‑1; if they beat Fordyce head‑to‑head they could grab the title.

  • Control: A 5‑2 record keeps them in the top three.

  • Floor: Two losses (4‑3) could drop them to the 4‑5 range, but they’d remain in the bracket.

• McGehee (3‑2, 20 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) and a Dumas or Fordyce slip could elevate them to No. 2.

  • Control: A 4‑3 mark likely gives them the No. 3–4 seed.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 finish puts them at risk of being pushed out by Drew Central or Lake Village.

• Drew Central (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) and slip into the fourth or fifth seed.

  • Control: A 3‑4 finish leaves them battling Lake Village and Palestine‑Wheatley for the final spot.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Lake Village (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Drew Central—finish 4‑3 and earn a playoff berth via points.

  • Control: A 3‑4 record puts them in a three‑way tie scenario; head‑to‑head and point margins will decide.

  • Floor: Losing both ends their season.

• Palestine‑Wheatley (2‑3, 14 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (4‑3) and help from others could get them to the last spot, but their low point total means they need big margins.

  • Control: A 3‑4 mark may not be enough unless Lake Village and Drew Central lose out.

  • Floor: A loss eliminates them.

• Rison (2‑3, 11 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) and hope to beat out Drew Central or Lake Village on points.

  • Control: A split leaves them 3‑4 and likely short of the cut line.

  • Floor: A second loss ends their hopes.

• Barton (1‑4, 13 pts

  • Best case: Two wins (3‑4) and a lot of help could push them into fifth; they need others to falter and must maximize margin.

  • Floor: One more loss eliminates them.

2A Conferences (top 4 qualify)

2A‑1 (Mount Ida/Conway Christian/Hector/Bigelow/Mountainburg/Magazine/Mountain Pine/Cossatot River/Johnson County Westside)

• Mount Ida (5‑0, 65 pts

  • Best case: Win out (7‑0) to secure the top seed.

  • Control: With one loss they still control the No. 1 seed because of their margin advantage.

  • Floor: A 5‑2 record could slide them to No. 2 but can’t drop them out of the four qualifiers.

• Conway Christian (4‑1, 45 pts)

  • Best case: Win their last two (6‑1) and have Mount Ida slip once to steal the top spot.

  • Control: A 5‑2 finish keeps them securely in the top two.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 mark still makes the playoffs but might be the fourth seed.

• Hector (4‑1, 42 pts

  • Best case: Same as Conway Christian—finish 6‑1 and hope Mount Ida loses.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they’re comfortably in the top three.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record could drop them to fourth if Bigelow wins out.

• Bigelow (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (4‑3) and a loss by Hector or Conway Christian could move them into the third seed.

  • Control: A 3‑4 mark keeps them fourth; they must beat Mountainburg for head‑to‑head.

  • Floor: Losing both (2‑5) opens the door for Mountainburg or Magazine to steal the final spot.

• Mountainburg (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 and jump into the final berth; they need to beat Bigelow and Magazine.

  • Control: A split (3‑4) leaves them battling Bigelow or Magazine on points for fourth.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) end their season.

• Magazine (2‑3, 15 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) and squeak into the fourth seed; their low point total means they need big margins.

  • Control: A 3‑4 finish requires help from Bigelow and Mountainburg.

  • Floor: Two losses (2‑5) eliminate them.

• Mountain Pine (1‑4, 13 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (3‑4) and collapses by Bigelow, Mountainburg and Magazine could create a tie for fourth decided by points.

  • Floor: Any loss ends their hopes.

• Cossatot River (0‑0 conference)

  • This school has only one recorded game; they’re effectively not part of the playoff race.

• Johnson County Westside (0‑5, 0 pts

  • Best case: Win out (2‑5) and hope for a multi‑team tie at the bottom; realistically a loss eliminates them.

2A‑2 (East Poinsett County/Cross County/Earle/Des Arc/Marked Tree/McCrory/Izard County/Marianna)

• East Poinsett County (5‑0, 56 pts)

  • Best case: Win the remaining games (7‑0) and take the top seed.

  • Control: Even with one loss, they should hold the No. 1 seed thanks to a two‑game cushion.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they still finish first or second.

• Cross County (4‑1, 49 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and hope EPC loses to steal first.

  • Control: A 5‑2 mark locks them into the second or third seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 record leaves them fourth and at risk if Marked Tree surges.

• Earle (4‑1, 32 pts

  • Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and losses by EPC and Cross County could push them to No. 1.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they’ll likely be third.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 mark could drop them into a points tie for the final berth.

• Des Arc (3‑2, 39 pts

  • Best case: Finish 5‑2 and slide into the top two if Cross County or Earle falter.

  • Control: A 4‑3 finish should still secure the fourth seed.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 record opens the door for Marked Tree to steal the last spot.

• Marked Tree (3‑2, 27 pts

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) and some upsets could vault them into third.

  • Control: At 4‑3 they’ll be in a points battle with Des Arc for fourth.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 finish likely eliminates them.

• McCrory (1‑4, 13 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (3‑4) and hope Des Arc or Marked Tree collapse; they’d need high point margins.

  • Floor: One more loss ends their chances.

• Izard County (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (2‑5) and rely on multiple upsets; any loss eliminates them.

• Marianna/Lee County (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Izard—win out and hope for a miracle; one more loss ends the season.

2A‑3 (Junction City/Gurdon/Murfreesboro/Spring Hill/Mineral Springs/Dierks/Foreman/Lafayette County)

• Junction City (5‑0, 65 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (7‑0) for the top seed.

  • Control: A single loss still leaves them first or second because of point dominance.

  • Floor: At 5‑2 they’d be no lower than second.

• Gurdon (4‑1, 45 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and a Junction City stumble could give them the title.

  • Control: A 5‑2 record should secure the No. 2 seed.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish risks sliding to third if Murfreesboro surges.

• Murfreesboro (3‑2, 39 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 5‑2 and challenge for second; they need to beat Gurdon head‑to‑head.

  • Control: A 4‑3 mark keeps them third.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 record would open the door for Spring Hill.

• Spring Hill (2‑2, 12 pts)

  • Best case: Win their last three (5‑2) and leap into second if Gurdon or Murfreesboro falter.

  • Control: A 4‑3 finish likely nabs the fourth seed.

  • Floor: Two more losses drop them out of contention.

• Mineral Springs (2‑3, 19 pts)

  • Best case: Finish 4‑3 and hope Spring Hill or Murfreesboro slip to secure the last berth.

  • Control: A 3‑4 record may not be enough; they need help.

  • Floor: Losing both ends their season.

• Dierks (2‑3, 14 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Mineral Springs—finish 4‑3 and rely on help.

  • Floor: One more loss eliminates them.

• Foreman (1‑4, 8 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (3‑4) and hope for major chaos.

  • Floor: Any loss ends their hopes.

• Lafayette County (0‑4, 0 pts

  • Best case: Win remaining games but elimination is likely; another loss ends their season.

2A‑4 (Bearden/Hampton/Carlisle/Poyen/Hazen/England/Baptist Prep/Clarendon)

• Bearden (4‑1, 48 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (6‑1) and claim the top seed; beating Hampton and Carlisle would help.

  • Control: A 5‑2 record likely secures the No. 2 seed.

  • Floor: At 4‑3 they’d still be in the playoffs but could drop to third or fourth.

• Hampton (4‑1, 47 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (6‑1) and favorable results could give them first; head‑to‑head vs Carlisle matters.

  • Control: At 5‑2 they’ll likely be second or third.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish could push them to the fourth seed.

• Carlisle (4‑1, 40 pts)

  • Best case: Win their last two (6‑1) and earn the top seed via head‑to‑head.

  • Control: A 5‑2 record keeps them securely in the top three.

  • Floor: A 4‑3 finish might drop them to the fourth seed depending on Poyen.

• Poyen (3‑2, 21 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (5‑2) and a slip by one of the 4‑1 teams could propel them into the third seed.

  • Control: A 4‑3 record likely claims the fourth seed.

  • Floor: A 3‑4 finish leaves them vulnerable if Hazen or England win out.

• Hazen (2‑3, 26 pts)

  • Best case: Win both (4‑3) and hope Poyen loses; their point total gives them a chance to steal the fourth seed.

  • Control: A 3‑4 mark probably isn’t enough unless Poyen collapses.

  • Floor: Another loss eliminates them.

• England (2‑3, 25 pts)

  • Best case: Same as Hazen—finish 4‑3 and hope for help.

  • Floor: One more defeat ends their season.

• Baptist Prep (1‑4, 9 pts)

  • Best case: Two wins (3‑4) and multiple upsets could sneak them into fourth if Poyen, Hazen and England all tumble.

  • Floor: Any loss eliminates them.

• Clarendon (0‑5, 0 pts)

  • Best case: Win out (2‑5) and hope for miracles; one more loss ends their season.