Week 1 Pickum Breakdown

Quick scoreboard on participation

• Entries: 64 fans

• Games with valid picks: 82 two-choice matchups

• Scoring spread (total points): max 66, median 45, average 38.5
  (Top-10 individual scores are saved for you below.)

What stands out this week

• Heavy chalk energy. The average “top pick” took 73.6% of votes.

• Big favorites were common. 62.2% of games had a 70%+ consensus, and 9 games were 90%+ one way.

• True coin flips were rare. Only 3 games landed within ~6 percentage points of 50/50.

Most lopsided picks (top 5)

These were the ones folks hammered:

1. Fordyce over Magnet Cove — 95.3%

2. Rison over Harmony Grove (Ouachita Co.) — 93.8%

3. Arkadelphia over Hot Springs — 93.8%

4. Warren over White Hall — 93.8%

5. Parkview over Maumelle — 92.2%

(Full list in the download.)

Closest calls (top 5)

Real pick’em vibes here—basically 50/50:

• Helena-West Helena vs Earle — 50.8/49.2

• Prescott vs Salem — 51.6/48.4

• Kennett, Mo vs Paragould — 51.6/48.4

• Jacksonville vs Lonoke — 53.1/46.9

• Perryville vs Hector — 53.1/46.9

The big “whoa” moments 

Top misses (lowest correct pick share, inferred):

1. Rivercrest vs Gosnell — Gosnell won; only 14.1% picked them
2. Drew Central over England — 11 / 64 (17.2%)
3. Cutter over Poyen — 11 / 64 (17.2%)
4. Two Rivers over Baptist Prep — 12 / 64 (18.8%)
5. Malvern vs Glen Rose — Glen Rose won; 20.3% picked them
6. Conway Christian vs Quitman — Quitman won; 35.9% picked them

How many people nailed 3+ of these winners?

Out of the 64 respondents who answered all six:

• 7 people picked 3 of 6 winners

• 0 people picked 4, 5, or 6 of 6

• (Full distribution: 0 right = 7 people, 1 right = 20, 2 right = 30, 3 right = 7)

Names of the 7 who hit 3/6: Lisa Duell, Drew, Blaine, Michael Taylor, Aaron Tilley, Shane Dulli, Bryan White.

What the numbers say about how folks picked

All positive and all football:

• Brand/tradition bias showed up (as it should in Week 1). Perennial powers drew heavy support—Bryant over Newton, Ga (85.9% on Bryant), Bentonville West over Cabot (71.9%), Fayetteville, Greenwood, Parkview, Warren and others got strong lean. That’s the community trusting proven programs to travel well and handle openers.

• Arkansas pride vs out-of-state: Where non‑Arkansas opponents appeared (e.g., Kennett, Mo, Newton, Ga), voters leaned toward the Arkansas side. That’s traditional—and honestly smart—until we see new film settle the true strength.

Fast hits & strong opinions

• Chalk was the right macro move in Week 1. With 9 games at 90%+ and a 73.6% average top‑pick share, going with the established programs was optimal most of the time.

• But the sharp edge mattered. If you found Gosnell, Glen Rose, Mt Ida, Trumann, Fountain Lake—you separated. Those were the leverage spots.

• Expect volatility to drop in Week 2–3 as fresh tape narrows the variance. Early lines (informally) will catch up to what the little upsets already told us.

Results from week 1